CD Projekt’s huge roadmap would not point out an impending acquisition, says analyst

Cyberpunk 2077 was no flop, nevertheless it definitely disrupted CD Projekt’s ahead momentum, inflicting it to postpone Cyberpunk DLC in favor of fixes, and hurting its share value. However the previous yr of Cyberpunk launch atonement shouldn’t be a part of a long-term scaling again, we discovered final week. If something, CD Projekt’s ambition has multiplied: The corporate says it may make a Cyberpunk 2077 sequel, launch three new Witcher RPGs over the course of simply six years, make a brand new game set in a brand new world, and extra.

On the identical time, joint CEO Marcin Iwiński mentioned he’d be stepping down and taking a brand new position on the CD Projekt supervisory board. These bulletins inevitably led to hypothesis that CD Projekt is likely to be an acquisition goal. The speculation goes that its super-ambitious roadmap is both an try to draw huge buyers, or a solution to deter a takeover by rising its share value.

It looks like something is feasible with all of the game studio buying huge corporations like Microsoft have been doing, however trade analyst Rhys Elliott, who works for gaming analysis agency Newzoo, would not suppose CD Projekt’s daring roadmap justifies any fast conclusions about its present or future possession. 

“Expansive roadmaps aren’t a particular signal of an organization anticipating an acquisition, and we might not wish to speculate about the potential of CD Projekt getting acquired,” Elliott informed PC Gamer.

In line with Elliott, it’s normal for mid-sized builders to have bold inside roadmaps for the aim of forecasting income and setting deadlines. What is not typical is telling the world about these roadmaps, as CD Projekt has. Elliott thinks the corporate observed that its standing was enhancing—notably after the success of Cyberpunk: Edgerunners on Netflix—and wished to grab the second.

“If [CD Projekt] revealed this roadmap earlier than fixing the state of Cyberpunk 2077, there would have been an outcry from the general public and buyers, additional rising adverse sentiment across the firm,” Elliot says. “Now that public sentiment across the firm is turning into extra constructive, CD Projekt is hoping to leverage that sentiment and construct off it to fully flip the adverse narrative. The inventory market additionally responded positively to the bulletins.”

The CD Projekt share value has risen by about 28% over the previous month. Elliott thinks buyers particularly appreciated the announcement of a non-licensed game—one CD Projekt will absolutely personal, not like the Cyberpunk and Witcher video games—in addition to the information from earlier this yr that CD Projekt is switching to Unreal Engine 5.

“The corporate needs all to comprehend it has discovered from its errors, is doubling down on its most profitable methods, and has many initiatives within the pipeline,” says Elliott. “That is music to the ears of buyers.”

One other analyst, David Cole of DFC Intelligence, had the same outlook.

“From my perspective, it looks like the announcement was made to supply present and potential buyers confidence that there are various thrilling issues within the works,” mentioned Cole.

However may any of these potential buyers be eyeing a controlling curiosity within the firm? Elliott does notice that Tencent and Savvy Video games Group have each mentioned they wish to make huge acquisitions in Europe.

Savvy Video games Group, which is funded by Saudi Arabia, particularly mentioned it was concerned about spending $13 billion on a “main game writer.” CD Projekt would not value $13 billion, though the fund could possibly be planning a number of acquisitions. It isn’t too arduous to think about CD Projekt underneath the Xbox banner as an alternative, or experiencing the embrace of Embracer, or turning into a Sony studio, however none of those situations are even rumors we’re listening to. In actual fact, all we have heard on the subject not too long ago is the opposite joint CEO, Adam Kiciński, saying in a 2021 interview: “We’ve got been repeating for years that we plan to stay unbiased and don’t plan to change into half of a bigger entity.” (Machine translated from Polish by Google.)

We did not see Microsoft’s Bethesda or Activision Blizzard acquisitions coming, so we’re not ruling something out, however the analysts do not suppose a bunch of game bulletins is sufficient to go on. Past that, the one hypothesis gas is CD Projekt’s depressed share value (it is up within the quick time period, however has dropped since 2020) and the truth that a lot of gaming corporations have been acquired not too long ago.

Presently, CD Projekt’s largest single shareholder is Marcin Iwiński, the outgoing co-CEO, who owns 12.78% of the corporate. Adam Kiciński, the opposite CEO, owns 4.02%. The opposite main particular person house owners are Michał Kiciński and Piotr Nielubowicz. The remainder of the shares, 66.04%, are publicly traded.